By Gerry Crispin, SPHR and Mark Mehler
mmc@careerxroads.com
Since 1996 our CareerXroads Update has been a monthly public commentary on the staffing industry. As we kick off our 12th year, we’ve added a second members-only publication: “CareerXroads Colloquium Bellwether” to highlight short news items that we find of interest. If you’d like to learn more about the Bellwether and our Colloquium click here. We welcome hearing from you at 732-821-6652 or mmc@careerXroads.com with ideas and queries.
For 11 years we’ve published a standard end-of- year/next-year predictions play list. Too often we’ve hedged our bets to increase our accuracy and when we read other’s predictions we note the same tendency. No more. This year, bored with same-o, same-o copy, we’ve crafted six predictions that will only hit the bulls-eye - or miss the target entirely. We hope you enjoy them and we (Gerry, Mark and our families) wish the very best to you and your family for the Holiday Season and New Year.
CareerXroads’ Tongue-In-Cheek Predictions for 2008
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
1. A major corporation will be hit with a class action suit by August 2008 for requiring ALL candidates to submit their social security numbers when first completing their online company application (regardless of qualifications). The problem comes to light in May after a report is circulated that a contract recruiter downloaded 2 million candidate applications from the company ATS he had temporary access to (these were collected over a 3 year period and apparently the company never got around to cleaning their database out). The recruiter left the firm and sold his cache to a Russian-mafia contact for $500,000 who subsequently resold the personal data to identity thieves worldwide.
The suit will name a prominent ATS/Hiring Management System as a co-defendant for developing, selling and promoting the technology platform that allowed this kind of data abuse to occur in the first place. The ATS’ chief PR hack mounting a "guns don’t kill" defense will claim that their fully- integrated, end-to-end, globally integrated recruitment management design includes many "choice" features and since each has to be configured by the company (i.e. "turned on") they can’t possibly be responsible. Having every candidates’ SS# available in the front-end, he points out, is a logical design and days are saved in processing background checks and besides, he whines on, "it was the company’s responsibility - an inside job - we were not hacked." The company will maintain that their online, prominently posted privacy statement specifically indicated that they "should not be held liable for any inadvertent loss of data" and that each candidate had checked the box as they submitted their resume.
The judge will not be not impressed and she rules on the class action suit in 24 hours. The suit asks for $250 million plus damages. CareerXroads is asked (and willingly offers) expert testimony about the stupidity of systems and processes that collect (without option) personal (identity) data from millions of people you don’t plan to hire and then leave it lying about forever.
2. Online, Affinity-Specific social media apps explode in 2008 as the primary means for people to connect, communicate and collaborate. Everyone joins as many different networks as they can and competition is fierce to see just how many groups one person can actually belong to. An Atlanta accountant claims the title. He belongs to more than 150 networks - including four college alumni associations (he transferred a lot), six professionals associations (including two local chapters and three regional networks as well as a national group), two trade associations, four diversity networks (he is multi- cultural, multi-racial), eight employer alumni groups (he had a lot of jobs), four community volunteer organizations and three family networks (divorced twice). These last created some confusion as he misplaced his password and was suddenly estranged from his kids by his first wife.
Jobs posted to these "closed" networks over shadow their more public cousins (Facebook, MySpace, Linkedin etc). The social network mainstays suddenly fall flat in their efforts to build similar affinity-specific- group firewalls within their hugely public borders when their charges to companies to NOT spam members with google-like ads runs tens of thousands of dollars per month. Firms shift to smaller, better protected networks for their employees.
3. The Newspaper Association of America waves the white flag of surrender for its entire industry as classifieds drop to 15% of the Conference Board index (1989=100) in January 2008 - thereby forcing a fire sale of newspapers to online search engines. Google buys Gannett while Yahoo, and Microsoft’s MSN fight over Hearst, Washington Post and others. Monster picks up the New York Times and Boston Globe. Even eBay and Craigslist get in the mix picking off the SF Chronicle, San Jose Mercury News and smaller papers for less money than these properties made in classifieds 15 years ago. Jobing considers buying a couple papers but has already replaced them with their own print capabilities.
Immediately the new owners reformat all the print classified sections to include thousands of 3-line placeholder listings - essentially printing a precis` of all the online jobs but sorted over several pages by company, job title and commute range. Each placeholder includes a url where online details can be found. Physically scanning these updated sections that now represent an "archive" (aggregate) of ALL the local positions posted online is easy. They are marketed as "hot instant lead sheets" to young people. And picking them up in nightclub drops, professional association meetings, etc. becomes "in". Traffic spikes and, as hiring results of linked print and online buys working in concert rather than competitively become known --- well let’s just say it is better than it was.
4. Corporate transparency increases substantially in 2008 as highly-competitive firms voluntarily publish (for all to see) their employee demographics (race, gender, etc.) as well as the percent of their employees promoted and transferred in a given quarter (movement between divisions broken out by race, gender, etc), external sources of hire for specific positions, benefits usage by employee groups, compensation bands for the highest volume of openings and contact information for all recruiters and affinity group leaders. (OK, we don’t really think this will happen)
5. A handful of companies bolt a new style of simulation, testing and assessment capability onto their online application process in 2008. What distinguishes these tools is the promise of feedback to the prospects who participate in the screening. "Apply and you’ll know where you stand with us!" resonates with passive job seekers who are not in the market but always looking for a competitive edge. This commitment to removing the "black hole" of staffing by a dozen industry leaders who counter with the promise to offer automated feedback to all candidates with even more detail to those applicants fully qualified hits the viral jackpot. These firms spend the time and money upfront to clearly articulate and list the "musts" as well as "nice to haves" (to be more competitive) on job descriptions, use video extensively and validate skills, knowledge and experiences rather than have their hiring managers guess or shoot form the hip.
Early results will show that fears of litigation are overblown and are balanced by their greatly increased access to pools of highly qualified candidates who, in the past, simply abandoned the application process. By engaging a more passive pool, firms who adopt a "you own the data AND our analysis" policy clearly end up with a commanding competitive advantage vaulting them into industry dominance for talent.
6. A large foreign based staffing firm opens its doors in the United States with a unique value proposition. It plans to monitize job seekers by offering an online configurable application that helps them to identify 50-100 target companies and then build a private database on each firm including: information on types of jobs the job seeker might apply to, where each job fits into the organization, names and contact information on each of the hiring managers, hiring manager bio data, names of recruiters who are responsible for supporting them, people likely known by the hiring manager and degrees of separation from a potential employee referral. RSS feeds of search results pages on each firm’s staffing pages are aggregated to instantly alert when a new job comes up. The 3 month subscription price is very low and personalized assistance (online and via phone) is an upgrade service. US staffing firms laugh until 1 million subscriptions are bought by job seekers in the first month. A cadre of sourcers is hired away from corporate staffing positions to work on a contract basis to support this new upstart whose expected income will pass $1 billion in its first year. Outplacement firms are caught flatfooted and complain that it can’t work because their "values- based" approach is essential to any strategy. After three months, the new firm buys the top outplacement firm for cash.
Lagniappe, a New Orleans term for "a little extra" is below. We couldn’t resist one more
"ripped from the headlines".
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Finding new workers for Shift-Work just got a whole lot harder: http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSN3029736520071130
It’s a good bet that in our litigious society Shift Work is about to get a very close look and a lot of press.
I’m willing to bet that the French-based International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) scientists who concluded that shift work screws up internal clocks enough to increase the risk of cancer were forced to stay up writing their final report for days on end. Perhaps their disrupted circadian rhythms caused them to conspire to prevent their ever having to work nights again. Then again, maybe not. Whether the IACR authors of this newest monograph were sleep deprived or not, they are certain to raise a hue and cry among lawyers and make the jobs of lots of recruiters that much more difficult.
According to one report, nearly 25 million US workers vary their work schedules. The Reuters article quotes the IARC as claiming 20% of all workers perform shift work. I’m not certain all variable work schedules are equal but you can be sure some of our more enterprising lawyers will think so and start a class action suit on behalf of the current and retired employees of some of our largest employers before too long. I’m doubtful that any of these folks will listen to the IARC’s representative Vincent Cogliano who said "the evidence was not yet clear enough for anyone to take any action. " (You would think that would be the point.)
While there is no indication about what it is in shift work that causes cancer nor how much the risk is actually increased, the headlines the media has generated about shift work will likely cause some significant challenges for recruiting functions. Jobs requiring shift work will have to be examined and questions about what can be done to accommodate and lessen the risk for those who are hired into these positions will have to be considered. Will there be a limit placed on the time shift work can be required? Will there be a "hazardous" premium? Will it be essential to "disclose" knowledge that shift work is potentially hazardous? Will new employees need to sign a waiver? Boring issues until money piles up and applicants disappear.
We’ve no doubt that France, already reducing the hours and days its citizens can work, will now move swiftly to ban shift. Here in the US, we’ll simply ignore the study until that law suit. Stay tuned.
CareerXroads Colloquium 2008: New Year - New Locations - New Hot Topics
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The CareerXroads Colloquium is entering its sixth year with our unique blend of high level members, no vendor involvement and hands on learning - this is the group that will directly impact your job today and your career tomorrow.
Complete the 2008 CareerXroads Colloquium Application Form and contact Mark today to start enjoying your Colloquium benefits.
Where you’ll find us next:
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Full details of CareerXroads’ schedule can be found here.
Good Hunting! Gerry and Mark
---------------------
Site owners, recruiters and job seekers have permission to copy and distribute or post this update in full or part with the following restrictions. a) Let us know and b). We would appreciate your providing proper credits regarding CareerXroads including our names, URL and e-mail.
Links to CareerXroads are much appreciated but we provide no reciprocal agreements with any site. We want to maintain a level of objectivity free from even perceived conflict of interest regarding our opinions. We have no direct relationship with any job board or career site.
Gerry and Mark work full time consulting, educating and discovering how talent and opportunity connect through emerging technology. If we can be of help, you know how to reach us.
CareerXroads
The Staffing Strategy Connection
By Gerry Crispin and Mark Mehler
mmc@careerxroads.com - 732-821-6652